Tuesday, November 24, 2009, 3:13AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 6 hours and 17 minutes.
The demise of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and Bear Stearns this year has investors contemplating the long-term outlook for other once-venerable institutions, including Dow members Citigroup, AIG and Bank of America.
But there's an even bigger financial institution with greater debt and an increasing level of bad loans on its books: The U.S. government.
Given the actions already taken, from the Housing Bill to the nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S. deficit could double to $800 billion in two years, says Nouriel Roubini, of NYU's Stern School and RGE Monitor. (Even worse, the official government deficit figures exclude the costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare.)
The big risk is that foreign holders of Treasuries will no longer accept low interest rates to help fund U.S. debt spending, says Roubini, noting countries like China, Russia and oil-producing nations in the Middle East have becoming increasingly important holders of Treasuries. Should they demand higher rates to hold U.S. debt or, worse, dump their holdings, it could have profound ramifications on the U.S. economy and the value of the dollar.
Roubini further notes the Federal Reserve has put its balance sheet -- and independence -- at risk via its intimate involvement in thus-far failed attempts to stem the crisis.
It's tempting to dismiss the notion of a "run" on the U.S. government as unthinkable and some bears have been warning for years, even decades, about such a worst-case scenario. But after the events of this weekend, much less the past six months, it's clear that (almost) anything is possible and no scenario too "outrageous" to seriously contemplate.
Best thing we could do right now is stiff em! Like was done to us on so much help we provided these nations. since they hold all the debt US files bankruptcy and stiffs the world!
When you needs someones help you can't be suspicious at the same time. It doesn't sound logical.
What a cluster!@#$. Good luck to whoever wins the presidency this November.
We are screw, leaders of this country no longer no what they are doing.
Well, those in power have cooked the goose. The question for each of the little people in America is, "Do I want to hold my savings in US Dollars?" , as the debt driven capital market wild fire consumes what it will. I wonder if the "crazies" are going to be proven right, ie; America is introduced to a silver backed "Amero" as an alternative currency?
Thanks George Bush...what a great legacy......and we should vote Republican again??? I don't think so.
its really sad but i have seen this coming ever since this reckless period in the us financial market began. When the brokers, banks ,investment banks, financial planners started putting profits ahead of their integrity and lost sight of how vital their role was in preserving the integrity of the us financial system. This was especially important since the US financial system was the leader in the world which most other countries looked up to.Now they are likely laughing at us and waiting for the next shoe to drop. When are the individuals and institutions responcible for this situation going to have to take their lumps and be charged with outright fraud etc. and prosecuted? [it will never happen because they were all so us to covering for each other that I dont think there is anybody who wouldn't be implicated in one way or another.
Yeah, you mean like Russia's invasion of Georgia, which has since led to massive capital outflows from that country and pressure from the billionaire oligarchs on the Putin/Medvedev regime to cool it? Just like markets can discipline poorly run companies, they can do the same to political regimes. China's dependency on exports precludes it from massively dumping dollar-denominated Treasuries. Get real!
it will be dangerous to US` economy
At the present time,this country,our country, the Good ol USA, is putting itself in a vulnerable position,to those that wish us ill, ie: Russia, China, Iran, And very importantly,Venezuela, and Hugo Chavez, who is in "cahoots" with Russia and Iran,who will do anything to hurt the US. They shout about oil this,oil that, but on the "sly" are doing devilish things that could harm the security of our country. It just so happens that Mother Russia, sent several long range bombers to Venezuela. I think that the "Puppet Master of Russia" ,Vladimir Putin, has plans for installing military facilities in Venezuela. They tried Cuba and failed. But then, we had the military might to back up our position. Since this time, our military is in a somewhat weakened position, strung out in so many places, Putin may think it is pay back time for missile placements, in his neighboring countries. Hugo Chavez is an ego maniac,and could be a good prospect for another Putin Puppet. Not only this, but Russia controls a lot of US treasury bills. Need I say more. Folks, it's not only financial, it's serious militarily to our country. I would ask The Feds to lighten up, and quit putting the American people at risk. Thanks,Jim
Tell that to John McCain who is trying to finance his tax cuts with the help of Chinese and Russian money. To top it off his VP pick wants to start another cold war with Russia. Fight a new cold war with Russia with Russian money….what an awesome twosome pair…
It is a surprise that this scenario isn't more widely discussed in the media. Given the US deficit is forecast to expand with no hope of ever getting back to break-even (let alone a surplus, such that some of the debt could be repaid), the only question is when this "run on the US" will happen. Certainly our future leaders will have some wrenching decisions to make to put this country back on an even keel. And those future leaders are talking about lipstick! Cause for despair I think.
Everyone is going to blame Bush, but it is a flawed political process, financial interests of large entities [ both public and private ], and the granting of favors to certain groups or lobbies that has brought this about in my opinion. We are totally short term and self centered. For the sake of convenience and buying off large lobbies, our wonderful politicians have brought about this situation. They seem to be so concerned with their own good life that others really don't matter except when elections come around and they need to tell the "half truths" once again. It's all about the bureaucracies who have become untouchable. No one has the political will to change them because of real and imagined consequences. The politicians saw this all happening but it was in their best interest not to do anything about it because they were benefiting in some manner. Yes, the Bush administration has a part, but this is something that "entitlement mind sets" and "doing favor for favor" has brought about since the 1930's. This is a system wide failure. Take the money out of the political process and perhaps we will have a different outcome in the future.
Everyone who is in debt from our Federal, State, Local governments, Corporations, homeowners, Jones chasers, credit cards, are responsible for the demise of this country. From what I can see, even if China, Russia etc... opened up the spigot of more credit to us, and lent us all of the money to bail our whole nation out, we would have only postponed the problem to the next generation, and impoverished our country to the point of no return, because we as a people still don't know that debt is bad on all levels. I read the blogs and everyone is blaming everyone else but themselves, with micro solutions and patchwork mentality . If you are in debt, you are a part of the problem. OUR ADDICTION IS DEBT, we seem to want just one more fix.
AMERICA THE BEAUTIFUL WILL TURN INTO AN UGLY SITE
COULD YOU ALL BLOODY STOP ALL THESE SPECULATIONS! YOU ARE EXACERBATING THE SITUATION! If you have nothing better to do, look at your own books, your own credit card statements, mortgage, bank accounts--I bet you'll see how you all had a role in this financial crisis. Do something positive for once--SHUT UP, IF YOU CAN'T.
Those who say a run on the US govt cannot happen probably were the same dodos saying the same thing about the dotcom boom, or the housing boom.
Yeah, I actually have been a goldbug since 1973. The only medium of exchange that has never, ever, all through history been worth nothing, zero, nada, zilch....is......GOLD. Better buy all you can very, very soon. This country is on the superfast track toward duplicating that of Germany in 1923.....when a loaf of bread literally required a wheelbarrow of paper marks (4 BILLION of them!) in exchange. Soon the U.S. dollar will be only worth as much....nothing.
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Bob - Monday September 15, 2008 12:20PM EDT
Take this a step further, these countries holding US debt can use it as leverage on foreign policy. China invades Taiwan. Middle East war involving Israel. They could easily say to the US "stay out or we dump your Treasury debt and destroy your economy". And we thought oil dependence was a national security issue.